Padrões espaciais e caracterização epidemiológica dos suicídios na microrregião de Chapecó, Santa Catarina: estudo ecológico, 1996-2018 / Patrones espaciales y caracterización epidemiológica de los suicidios en la micro-región de Chapecó, Santa Catarina, Brasil: estudio ecológico, 1996-2018 / Spatial patterns and epidemiological characterization of suicides in the Chapecó micro-region, Santa Catarina, Brazil: an ecological study, 1996-2018

Objective: to identify spatial clusters of suicide and its epidemiological characteristics in the Chapecó (SC) micro-region from 1996 to 2018. Methods: this was an exploratory ecological study, using data from the Mortality Information System; specific suicide rates and relative risks (RR) were calculated with a 95% confidence interval (95%CI); the scan statistic was used for spatial analysis. Results: there were 1,034 suicides (13.7/100,000 inhabitants), with a male/female ratio of 3.79; the ≥ 60 age group was at higher risk for both sexes; a high risk cluster was found in the southwest region (RR = 1.57) and a low risk cluster in the southeast region, including Chapecó itself (RR = 0.68); risk of suicide among widowed (RR = 3.05; 95%CI 1.99;4.67), separated (RR = 2.48; 95%CI 1.44;4.27), and married (RR = 1.97; 95%CI 1.54;2.51) people was higher than among single people. The main methods were hanging (81.2%) and firearms (9.7%). Conclusion: there was a higher risk of suicide in the elderly, male and widowed people. Hanging was the most frequent method and risk clustering was found in the southwest.

Objetivo: identificar agregados espaciales de suicidio y el perfil epidemiológico en la microrregión de Chapecó (SC), 1996-2018. Métodos: estudio ecológico exploratorio, con datos del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad. Fueron calculadas tasas específicas de suicidio y riesgos relativos (RR) con intervalo de confianza 95% (IC95%). Para el análisis espacial se utilizó la estadística scan. Resultados: hubo 1.034 suicidios (13,7/100.000 habitantes), razón sexo masculino/femenino de 3,79. El grupo de ≥ 60 años presentó mayor riesgo para ambos sexos. Se observó un agregado de alto riesgo en la región suroeste (RR = 1,57) y un agregado de menor riesgo en el sureste (RR = 0,68). El riesgo de suicidio entre viudos (RR = 3.05; IC95% 1,99;4,67), separados (RR = 2.48; IC95% 1,44;4,27) y casados (RR = 1.97; IC95% 1,54;2,51) fueron mayores que entre solteros. El principal medio fue el ahorcamiento (81,2%), seguido de las armas de fuego (9,7%). Conclusión: hubo mayor riesgo de suicidio en ancianos, sexo masculino y viudos. Ahorcamiento fue el método más frecuente y se observó agrupación de riesgos hacia el Suroeste.

Objetivo: identificar conglomerados espaciais do suicídio e características epidemiológicas na microrregião de Chapecó, SC, Brasil, 1996-2018. Métodos: estudo ecológico exploratório, com dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade; foram calculadas taxas específicas de suicídio, e riscos relativos (RR) com intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%); na análise espacial, utilizou-se estatística scan. Resultados: 1.034 suicídios (13,7/100 mil habitantes), a razão sexo masculino/feminino de 3,79; a idade ≥ 60 anos apresentou maior risco para ambos os sexos; observou-se um conglomerado de alto risco na região sudoeste (RR = 1,57) e um de menor risco a sudeste, incluindo Chapecó (RR = 0,68); risco de suicídio entre viúvos (RR = 3,05; IC95% 1,99;4,67), separados (RR = 2,48; IC95% 1,44;4,27) e casados (RR = 1,97; IC95% 1,54;2,51) maior que entre solteiros; principal método, enforcamento (81,2%), seguido por uso de arma de fogo (9,7%). Conclusão: maior risco de suicídio para idosos, sexo masculino e viúvos; enforcamento foi mais frequente; conglomerado de risco a sudoeste.

Spatial temporal feature of tuberculosis among high school students in Gansu Province from 2018 to 2022 / 中国学校卫生

Objective@#To analyze the spatial temporal distribution characteristics of tuberculosis among high school students at county levels in Gansu Province from 2018 to 2022,so as to provide a scientific basis for tuberculosis prevention and control in schools.@*Methods@#Tuberculosis data from high school students in counties (districts) reported in Gansu Province from 2018 to 2022 was collected from the Tuberculosis Information Management System and Infectious Disease Information Reporting System of the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information Management System. Demographic data of high school students in counties (districts) came from the General Management System of the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information Management System, and the spatial clustering of the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among high school students in Gansu Province in the past five years was analyzed using the methods of global spatial autocorrelation (Moran s I) and local indicators of spatial audocorrelation(LISA).@*Results@#A total of 41 885 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were reported in various counties of Gansu Province From 2018 to 2022, with an average reported incidence rate of 32.81/100 000. During the same period, 1 170 high school students cases were reported, with an average reported incidence rate of 13.72/100 000. With the exception of 2020, the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among high school students was non random distribution in other 4 years, showed a moderate intensity of spatial clustering. From 2018 to 2022, most counties in Gansu Province reported that the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among high school students was 10.00/100 000 or below, the counties with reported incidence rate >40.00/100 000 were mainly distributed in Luqu County, Maqu County, Diebu County, Hezuo City, Xiahe County of Gannan Prefecture, Gangu County and Wushan County of Tianshui Prefecture, Wenxian County and Kangxian County of Longnan Prefecture, Huachi County of Pingliang Prefecture, Huanxian County of Qingyang Prefecture. The number of counties where the reported incidence rate of tuberculosis among high school students more than 30.00/100 000 gradually decreased from 2018 to 2022. In the past five years, the reported incidence rate of tuberculosis among high school students in all counties of Gannan Prefecture remained above 40.00/ 100 000 . The LISA analysis results showed that the high incidence areas were mainly concentrated in Gannan Prefecture.@*Conclusions@#The epidemic situation of pulmonary tuberculosis among high school students in Gansu province from 2018 to 2022 is still a serious condition, showing the characteristics of unbalanced regional distribution. The reported incidence rate shows a strong spatial clustering, and the hot spots are concentrated in the counties (districts) of Gannan prefecture in Gansu Province.

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of syphilis in Zhejiang province, 2016—2020 / 中华皮肤科杂志

Objective:To analyze spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of syphilis in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020, to explore cluster areas of syphilis cases, and to provide a theoretical basis for accurate prevention and control of syphilis.Methods:Data on reported syphilis cases in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020 were collected from the notifiable infectious disease surveillance system in China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The ArcGIS10.2 software was used as a data management and presentation platform to establish a database for spatial analysis of syphilis in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020, and spatial autocorrelation analysis of reported syphilis incidence was conducted. The SaTScan 9.6 software was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis.Results:A total of 158 420 cases of syphilis were reported in Zhejiang province from 2016 to 2020, and the average annual reported incidence rate was 49.07 per 100 000 in all counties and districts (range: 20.52 per 100 000-124.29 per 100 000) . The overall spatial distribution pattern of syphilis cases in Zhejiang province was characterized by higher reported syphilis incidence in the West area and lower incidence in the middle area. Global autocorrelation analysis showed that all the global Moran′s I indices from 2016 to 2020 were over 0, Z values were over 1.96, and P values were below 0.001, suggesting the spatial clustering of reported syphilis cases. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that there were 2 high-high clustering areas (Tonglu and Chun′an counties in Hangzhou city, Jingning county in Lishui city) , and 1 low-low clustering area (Jindong district, Dongyang and Yongkang county-level cities in Jinhua city) . Local hot-spot analysis with G statistic showed that there were 6 positive hot-spot areas and 8 negative hot-spot areas of syphilis cases in Zhejiang province. SaTScan spatiotemporal scanning analysis revealed 3 clustering areas, mainly distributed in Taizhou and Zhoushan cities along the eastern coast, and some counties and districts in the southwestern mountainous areas. Conclusions:The reported incidence rate of syphilis in Zhejiang province is characterized by spatial clustering. In the future, prevention and control of syphilis should be strengthened in southwestern mountainous areas, eastern islands, and other remote areas as well as areas with poor transportation.

COVID-19 y adultos mayores: comparación espaciotemporal entre mortalidad y vacunación en la provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina / COVID-19 and older adults: spatiotemporal comparison between mortality and vaccination in the province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

RESUMEN El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar las variaciones espaciotemporales de la mortalidad por COVID-19 en adultos mayores y de la vacunación contra la COVID-19 en esta población. Se utilizaron datos de defunciones por COVID-19 y de personas de 70 a más años inmunizadas con la primera dosis de vacunas contra esta enfermedad, en partidos de la provincia de Buenos Aires, desde el 29 de diciembre del 2020 al 30 de junio de 2021. Se emplearon técnicas de escaneo espaciotemporal para detectar conglomerados. Los partidos del Gran Buenos Aires que tuvieron mayor vacunación con la primera dosis de la vacuna Sputnik V en población de 70 a más años, entre mediados de marzo y principios de abril de 2021, coincidieron mayormente en registrar una disminución de la mortalidad en esta población, entre finales de abril y finales de junio de 2021. Este estudio mostró algunos indicios del impacto positivo de la aplicación de la primera dosis de la vacuna Sputnik V en el Gran Buenos Aires.

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of COVID-19 mortality and vaccination against COVID-19 in older adults. We used data from deaths due to COVID-19 and persons aged 70 years and older immunized with the first dose of vaccines against this disease, from districts of the province of Buenos Aires, between December 29, 2020, and June 30, 2021. Spatiotemporal scanning techniques were used to detect clusters. The parties of Greater Buenos Aires that had the highest vaccination rate with the first dose of the Sputnik V vaccine in population aged 70 years and older, between mid-March and early April 2021, also registered a decrease in mortality in this population, between the end of April and the end of June 2021. This study showed some signs of the positive impact associated with the application of the first dose of Sputnik V vaccine in Greater Buenos Aires.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence and its spatial distribution in Macapá - Amapá / Tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose e sua distribuição espacial em Macapá-AP

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence after the implementation of the rapid molecular test (RMT-TB), to identify whether tuberculosis presents seasonal variation and to classify the territory according to case density and risk areas in Macapá, Amapá. METHODS: Ecological study of tuberculosis cases registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Information System for Notifiable Diseases) between 2001 and 2017. We used the Prais-Winsten test to classify the temporal trend of incidence and the interrupted time series to identify changes in the temporal trend before and after the implementation of the rapid molecular test, and to verify seasonality in the municipality. The Kernel estimator was used to classify case density and scan statistics to identify areas of tuberculosis risk. RESULTS: A total of 1,730 cases were identified, with a decreasing temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence (−0.27% per month, 95%CI −0.13 to −0.41). The time series showed no change in level after the implementation of the GeneXpert®MTB/RIF molecular test; however, the incidence increased in the post-test period (+2.09% per month, 95%CI 0.92 to 3.27). Regarding the seasonal variation, it showed growth (+13.7%/month, 95%CI 4.71 to 23.87) from December to June, the rainy season - called amazon winter season -, and decrease (−9.21% per month, CI95% −1.37 to −16.63) in the other periods. We classified areas with high density of cases in the Central and Northern districts using Kernel and identified three protection clusters, SC1 (RR = 0.07), SC2 (RR = 0.23) and SC3 (RR = 0.36), and a high-risk cluster, SC4 (RR = 1.47), with the scan statistics. CONCLUSION: The temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence was decreasing in the time series; however, detection increased after the introduction of RMT-TB, and tuberculosis showed seasonal behavior. The case distribution was heterogeneous, with a tendency to concentrate in vulnerable and risk territories, evidencing a pattern of disease inequality in the territory.

RESUMO OBJETIVO: Avaliar a tendência temporal da incidência da tuberculose após a implementação do teste rápido molecular, identificar se a tuberculose apresenta variação sazonal e classificar o território de acordo com a densidade de casos e as áreas de risco em Macapá-AP. MÉTODOS: Estudo ecológico composto por casos de tuberculose registrados no SINAN entre 2001 e 2017. Foi utilizado o teste Prais-Winsten para classificar a tendência temporal da incidência e a Série Temporal Interrompida para identificar mudanças na tendência temporal antes e depois da implementação do teste rápido molecular, além de verificar a sazonalidade no município. Utilizou-se o estimador de Kernel para classificar a densidade de casos e estatística de varredura para identificar áreas de risco da tuberculose. RESULTADOS: Foram identificados 1730 casos, observando-se que a tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose foi decrescente (-0,27% por mês, IC95% −0,13 a −0,41). Não houve mudança de nível na série temporal após a implantação do teste molecular GeneXpert® MTB/RIF, porém, o período pós teste foi classificado como crescente em termos da incidência (+2,09% por mês, IC95% 0,92 a 3,27). Quanto à variação sazonal, apresentou crescimento (+13,7%/mês, IC95% 4,71 a 23,87) nos meses de dezembro a junho, referente ao período de chuvas - chamado inverno amazônico - e decréscimo (-9,21% por mês, IC95% −1,37 a −16,63) nos demais períodos. Por meio de Kernel, foram classificadas áreas com alta densidade de casos nos distritos Central e Norte e, com a estatística de varredura, foram identificados três aglomerados de proteção, AE1 (RR = 0,07), AE2 (RR = 0,23) e AE3 (RR = 0,36), e um aglomerado de alto risco, AE4 (RR = 1,47). CONCLUSÃO: A tendência temporal da incidência de tuberculose se revelou decrescente na série temporal, todavia, um crescimento na detecção foi observado após introdução do TRM-TB, e ainda se evidenciou que há comportamento sazonal da tuberculose. A distribuição dos casos foi heterogênea, com tendência de concentração em territórios vulneráveis e de risco, evidenciando um padrão de desigualdade da doença no território.

Difusión espacio-temporal de muertes por COVID-19 en Argentina / Space-time spread of COVID-19 deaths in Argentina / Distribuição espaço-temporal de mortes por COVID-19 na Argentina

Resumen Objetivos. Describir la difusión espacio-temporal de las muertes por COVID-19, y analizar sus desigualdades socio-espaciales en la Argentina. Métodos. Se analizaron las muertes por COVID-19 ocurridas en Argentina al 17 de octubre de 2020 utilizando datos referidos al día, mes y año, y el lugar de residencia. Se utilizó la técnica de escaneo espacio-temporal por permutaciones para detectar la presencia de conglomerados espacio-temporales. Se compararon el nivel de pobreza, densidad poblacional y porcentaje de población adulta mayor entre las áreas pertenecientes a conglomerados de mortalidad alta y las áreas pertenecientes a conglomerados de mortalidad baja. Resultados. Se detectaron cinco conglomerados de mortalidad alta entre el 21 de marzo y el 27 de agosto en el Aglomerado Gran Buenos Aires (AGBA) y noreste de la provincia de Buenos Aires. Los conglomerados de mortalidad baja se localizaron en la periferia del AGBA, desde mediados de septiembre a mediados de octubre, y en el centro y noroeste de la Argentina, entre fines de abril y fines de agosto. Los conglomerados de mortalidad alta se localizaron en áreas con mayor densidad poblacional y mayor porcentaje de población adulta mayor en comparación a los conglomerados de mortalidad baja. Conclusiones. No se detectaron conglomerados de mortalidad alta entre septiembre y mediados de octubre. Tampoco hemos detectado una difusión espacial de muertes hacia áreas de nivel socioeconómico bajo a nivel nacional. Nuestros resultados apoyan el modelo de difusión de la mortalidad en una primera fase, que afecta a la principal área urbana de la Argentina.

ABSTRACT Objectives. Describe the space-time spread of COVID-19 deaths and analyze its socio-spatial inequalities in Argentina. Methods. COVID-19 deaths in Argentina as of October 17, 2020 were analyzed using data onday, month, and year, and place of residence. The space-time permutation scan method was used to detect the presence of space-time clusters. Poverty levels, population densities, and percentage of older adults in the population were compared for areas in high-mortality clusters and low-mortality clusters. Results. Five high-mortality clusters were detected between March 21 and August 27 in the Greater Buenos Aires conurbation and the northeast of the province of Buenos Aires. Low-mortality clusters were located on the periphery of the urban area from mid-September to mid-October and in central and northwestern Argentina between late April and late August. High-mortality clusters were located in areas with higher population densities and higher percentages of older adults in population, comparedto low-mortality clusters. Conclusions. No high-mortality clusters were detected between September and mid-October. Norhave we detected a spatial spread of deaths to areas of low socioeconomic status at the national level. Our results support the first phase of the mortality spread model, affecting the largest urban area in Argentina.

Resumo Objetivo. Descrever a distribuição espaço-temporal de mortes por COVID-19 e analisar desigualdades socioespaciais na Argentina. Métodos. As mortes por COVID-19 ocorridas na Argentina até 17 de outubro de 2020 foram analisadas a partir de dados referentes ao dia, mês e ano e local de residência. A estatística scan utilizando modelo de permutação espaço-tempo foi aplicada para detectar conglomerados espaço-temporais. Realizou-se a comparação do nível de pobreza, densidade populacional e percentual de população idosa entre as áreas pertencentes aos conglomerados com alta mortalidade e as áreas pertencentes aos conglomerados com baixa mortalidade. Resultados. Cinco conglomerados com alta mortalidade foram detectados entre 21 de março e 27 de agosto na região da Grande Buenos Aires e no nordeste da província de Buenos Aires. Os conglomerados com baixa mortalidade estavam localizados na periferia da região da Grande Buenos Aires, de meados de setembro a meados de outubro, e nas regiões central e noroeste do país, entre o final de abril e final de agosto. Os conglomerados com alta mortalidade estavam localizados em áreas de maior densidade populacional e maior percentual de população idosa em comparação aos conglomerados com baixa mortalidade. Conclusões. Não foram detectados conglomerados com alta mortalidade entre setembro e meadosde outubro. Também não se observou a distribuição espacial de mortes em áreas com baixo nível socioeconômico em todo o país. Os resultados deste estudo respaldam omodelo de distribuição de mortes na primeira fase, atingindo a principal área urbana da Argentina.

Tendência e distribuição da taxa de mortalidade por homicídios segundo porte populacional dos municípios do Brasil, 2000 e 2015 / Trend and distribution of the homicide mortality rate in accordance with the size of the population of Brazilian municipalities - 2000 and 2015

Resumo O estudo tem como objetivo analisar tendências e distribuição das taxas de mortalidade por homicídios (TMH) segundo porte populacional dos municípios brasileiros entre 2000 e 2015. Trata-se de estudo ecológico dos óbitos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, com TMH padronizada pelo método direto e intervalo de 95% de confiança. A TMH no Brasil cresceu 6% (para 29,1/100 mil) no período, com aumento em municípios de pequeno (83%; 12,7 para 23,2/100 mil) e médio porte (52%; 19,7 para 30,1/100 mil); o que se verifica para ambos os sexos, diferentes idades, regiões e em eventos por arma de fogo. A TMH decresceu em municípios de grande porte metropolitanos (19%; 40,6 para 32,9/100 mil) e da região Sudeste (55%; 45,6 para 20,6/100 mil). O risco relativo-RR de cidades pequenas e médias em relação a grandes já é maior ou próximo de 1 em mulheres (RR 0,99; 1,03), pessoas com 60 ou mais anos (RR 1,43; 1,36) e homicídios por outros meios (RR 1,16; 1,18). As cidades de São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro foram as que mais contribuíram para a redução das TMH, em especial nas cidades grandes (-37,6 e -22,3 homicídios/100 mil hab.). Municípios de porte pequeno e médio apresentam tendências consistentes de incremento de TMH mesmo considerando subgrupos populacionais.

Abstract The scope of this study is to analyze the trends and distribution of homicide mortality rates (HMR) according to the population size of Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2015. It is an ecological study of deaths recorded in the Mortality Information System, with HMR standardized by the direct method and 95% confidence interval. HMR in Brazil grew 6% (to 29.1/100,000) in the period, with an increase in small municipalities (83%; 12.7 to 23.2/100,000) and mediumsized cities (52%; 19.7% to 30.1/100,000); which is true for both sexes, different ages, regions and firearm-related events. HMR decreased in major cities (19%; 40.6% to 32.9/100,000) and the Southeast region (55%; 45.6% to 20.6/100,000). The relative risk (RR) of small and medium-sized cities in relation to large cities is already greater than or close to 1 among women (RR 0.99; 1.03), people aged 60 years or older (RR 1.43; 1.36) and homicides by other means (RR 1.16; 1.18). The cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro contributed the most to the reduction of HMR, especially in large cities (-37.6 and -22.3 homicides/100,000 inhabitants). Small and medium-sized municipalities have consistent trends of an increase in HMR even considering population subgroups.

Syphilis in pregnant women and congenital syphilis: spatial pattern and relationship with social determinants of health in Mato Grosso

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The increasing incidence of syphilis among pregnant women (PS) and congenital syphilis (CS) has negatively affected maternal-child health in Brazil. The spatial approach to diseases with social indicators improves knowledge of health situations. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of incidences, identify the priority areas for infection control actions, and analyze the relationship of PS and CS clusters with social determinants of health in Mato Grosso. METHODS: This is an ecological study with data from different health information systems. After data procedure linkage, we analyzed the Bayesian incidences of triennial infections during specific periods. We performed SATSCAN screenings to identify spatiotemporal clusters. Further, we verified the differences between the clusters and indicators using Pearson's chi-square test. RESULTS: The variations in PS incidence were 0.9-20.5/1,000 live births (LB), 0.6-46.3/1,000 LB, and 2.1-23.2/1,000 LB in the first, second, and last triennium, respectively; for CS, the variations were 0-7.1/1,000 LB, 0-7.5/1,000 LB, and 0.3-10.8/1,000 LB in the first, second, and last triennium, respectively. Three clusters each were identified for PS (RR=2.02; RR=0.30; RR=21.45, p<0.0001) and CS (RR=3.55; RR=0.10; RR=0.26, p<0.0001). The high-risk clusters overlapped in time-space; CS incidence was associated with municipalities with a higher proportion of LB mothers of race/non-white color and with poor sanitary conditions, lower proportion of pregnant teenagers, and under 8 years of schooling. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the spatiotemporal evolution of PS and CS incidences and the extension of areas with persistent infections indicate the need for monitoring, especially of priority areas in the state.

Análise dos padrões espaciais e caracterização dos suicídios no Brasil entre 1990 e 2015 / Analysis of spatial patterns and characterization of suicides in Brazil from 1990 to 2015 / Análisis de los patrones espaciales y caracterización de los suicidios en Brasil entre 1990 y 2015

Resumo: O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o padrão espacial das taxas de mortalidade por suicídio no Brasil entre 1990 e 2015. Realizou-se análise espacial das taxas de mortalidade por suicídio dos municípios, em triênios, por meio de inferência bayesiana e análise de clusters, segundo risco de óbito ajustado por sexo e faixa etária. A taxa de mortalidade por suicídio aumentou de 3,5 óbitos em 1990 para 5,3 óbitos/100 mil habitantes em 2015 quando, a cada 64 minutos, uma morte foi registrada. Houve predominância de óbitos masculinos em todos os períodos, e as variáveis idade e raça/cor apresentaram alterações. Alta taxa de mortalidade entre jovens e indígenas foi observada no último triênio. Observamos perda de áreas sem notificação, bem como redução de áreas com taxas baixas de mortalidade em oposição ao aumento de áreas com taxas médias em todas as regiões. As taxas altas, que se concentravam no Sul, se dispersaram para outras regiões. Taxas muito altas surgiram no sul de Mato Grosso do Sul. Clusters de maior verossimilhança em todos os períodos são observados no Sul. As taxas de mortalidade por suicídio aumentaram, com alteração no padrão espacial no período estudado. Apesar da concentração inicial das altas taxas de mortalidade no Sul, houve dispersão dos óbitos para as demais regiões com diferentes magnitudes. Por um lado, houve redução dos óbitos entre idosos no Sul; por outro lado, houve aumento de óbitos no Nordeste, de adultos e pessoas negras no Centro-oeste e entre jovens e indígenas no noroeste do Amazonas.

Abstract: This study aimed to analyze the spatial pattern in mortality rates from suicide in Brazil from 1990 to 2015. A spatial analysis was performed for the mortality rates from suicide in municipalities (counties) in three-year periods using Bayesian inference and clusters according to risk of death adjusted by sex and age bracket. The mortality rate from suicide increased from 3.5 deaths in 1990 to 5.3 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in 2015, when there was one death from suicide every 64 minutes. There was a predominance of suicide deaths in males in all the periods, while the variables age and race/color showed some changes. High suicide mortality rates among youth and indigenous people were seen in the most recent three-year period. We observed a loss of areas without suicide reporting, a reduction in areas with low suicide mortality rates, as opposed to an increase in areas with medium rates in all the regions of Brazil. The high rates, previously concentrated in the South of Brazil, had expanded to other regions of the country. Very high rates emerged in southern Mato Grosso do Sul state. Clusters with higher likelihood in all the periods were observed in the South. Suicide mortality rates increased, with changes in the spatial during the 25-year period. Despite the initial concentration of high suicide mortality rates in the South, the deaths spread to other regions of the country with different magnitudes. There was a reduction in suicide deaths among the elderly in the South and an increase in the Northeast, and an increase in deaths in adults and black Brazilians in the Central and among youth and indigenous persons in northwestern Amazonas state.

Resumen: El objetivo de este estudio fue analizar el patrón espacial de la tasa de mortalidad por suicidio en Brasil entre 1990 y 2015. Se realizó un análisis espacial de las tasas de mortalidad por suicidio en municipios durante trienios, mediante inferencia bayesiana y análisis de clústeres, según el riesgo de fallecimiento, ajustado por sexo y franja de edad. La tasa de mortalidad por suicidio aumentó de 3,5 óbitos en 1990 a 5,3 óbitos/100 mil habitantes en 2015, cuando cada 64 minutos se registró una muerte. Hubo predominancia de fallecimientos masculinos en todos los períodos, mientras que las variables edad y raza/color presentaron alteraciones. Una alta tasa de mortalidad entre jóvenes e indígenas se observó en el último trienio. Observamos pérdida de áreas sin notificación, reducción de áreas con tasas bajas de mortalidad, frente al aumento de áreas con tasas medias en todas las regiones. Las tasas altas, que se concentraban en el Sur, se dispersaron hacia otras regiones. Aparecieron tasas muy altas en el sur de Mato Grosso do Sul. Los clústeres con mayor verosimilitud durante todos los períodos se observan en el Sur. Las tasas de mortalidad por suicidio aumentaron, con alteración en el patrón espacial durante el período estudiado. A pesar de la concentración inicial de las altas tasas de mortalidad en el Sur, hubo una dispersión de los fallecimientos hacia las demás regiones con diferentes magnitudes. Hubo una reducción de los óbitos entre ancianos en el Sur y un aumento en el Nordeste, así como un aumento de óbitos de adultos y personas negras en el Centro-oeste, y entre jóvenes e indígenas en el noroeste del Amazonas.

Definition of persistent areas with increased dengue risk by detecting clusters in populations with differing mobility and immunity in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil / Definição de áreas persistentes com risco aumentado de dengue através da detecção de clusters em populações com diferentes padrões de mobilidade e imunidade no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil / Definición de áreas persistentes con riesgo elevado de dengue, mediante la detección de clústeres en poblaciones con diferente movilidad e inmunidad, en Río de Janeiro, Brasil

Dengue is a re-emerging arbovirus infection of major epidemiological importance. The detection of dengue clusters is an important epidemiological surveillance strategy, contributing to better allocation of control measures and prioritizing areas that are subject to increased risk of transmission. Studies involving human populations with low mobility are scarce, and the current study thus aims to investigate the presence of persistent dengue clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in populations with different mobility and immunity. Epidemiological data on dengue were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Areas of increased risk were defined by the space-time scan statistical method and analysis of persistence with use of map algebra. For both study populations, the clusters that were identified did not show spatial concordance, except in years when both presented the same immunological profile. Their persistent clusters were located mostly in the West Zone of city. The clusters of the two study populations only displayed spatial concordance in years with similar immune profiles, which confirms the confounding role of immunity and supports the use of populations with high percentages of susceptible individuals when designing territory-based dengue studies. The space-time similarity between the areas of persistent risk in both populations suggests that the West Zone, a region with disorderly urban growth and low mean income, shows the highest risk of dengue transmission. The definition of persistent dengue clusters contributes to the improvement of dengue control strategies and territorial planning.

A dengue é uma arbovirose reemergente de grande importância epidemiológica. A detecção de clusters de dengue representa uma importante estratégia de vigilância epidemiológica, que contribui para melhor alocação de medidas de controle no território e priorização de áreas sujeitas a risco aumentado de transmissão. São raros os estudos que envolvem populações humanas com mobilidade baixa; portanto, este estudo tem como objetivo investigar a presença de clusters persistentes de dengue no Município do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, entre populações com diferentes padrões de mobilidade e imunidade. Os dados epidemiológicos sobre dengue foram obtidos do Ministério da Saúde. As áreas de risco aumentado foram definidas pelo método estatístico de varredura espaço-tempo, e a análise de persistência usou a álgebra cartográfica. Para as duas populações do estudo, os clusters identificados não mostraram concordância espacial, exceto nos anos em que ambas apresentaram o mesmo perfil imunológico. Para ambas as populações, os clusters persistentes estavam localizados principalmente na Zona Oeste da cidade. Os clusters nas duas populações do estudo mostraram concordância especial apenas nos anos em que ambas apresentavam perfis imunológicos semelhantes, o que confirma o papel de confounding da imunidade e sustenta o uso de populações com percentuais altos de indivíduos suscetíveis no desenho de estudos sobre dengue com base territorial. A semelhança espaço-temporal entre as áreas de risco persistente em ambas as populações sugere que a Zona Oeste, uma região com crescimento urbano desordenado e média de renda baixa, apresenta o maior risco de transmissão de dengue. A definição de clusters de dengue persistentes contribui para o aprimoramento das estratégias de controle da dengue e de planejamento territorial.

El dengue es una infección por arbovirus reemergente de mucha importancia epidemiológica. La detección de clústeres de dengue es una importante estrategia de vigilancia epidemiológica, que contribuye a mejorar la asignación de medidas de control en el territorio, priorizando áreas que están sujetas a un riesgo de transmisión más elevado. Los estudios que implican poblaciones humanas con baja movilidad son escasos y, por tanto, el presente estudio tiene como fin investigar la presencia de clústeres persistentes de dengue en la ciudad de Río de Janeiro, Brasil, en poblaciones con diferente movilidad e inmunidad. Los datos epidemiológicos sobre dengue se obtuvieron del Ministerio de Salud brasileño. Las áreas de riesgo elevado se definieron mediante un método de análisis espacio-tiempo estadístico, además, el análisis de persistencia utilizó álgebra de mapas. Para las dos poblaciones en estudio, los clústeres que fueron identificados no mostraron concordancia espacial, excepto durante los años en que ambos presentaron el mismo perfil inmunológico. Para ambas poblaciones, los clústeres persistentes se localizaron en su mayoría en la zona oeste de la ciudad. Los clústeres de las dos poblaciones en estudio solo mostraron concordancia espacial durante los años en que ambas contaban con perfiles inmunes similares, lo que confirma el rol confusor de la inmunidad y respalda el uso de poblaciones con altos porcentajes de individuos susceptibles, cuando se diseñan estudios sobre el dengue basados en territorios. La similitud espacio-tiempo entre áreas de riesgo persistente en ambas poblaciones sugiere que la zona oeste, la región con un crecimiento urbano desordenado y una media de ingresos bajos, muestra el riesgo más alto de transmisión de dengue. La definición de los clústeres dengue persistente contribuye a la mejora de las estrategias para el control del dengue y su planificación territorial.

Epidemiological and spatial-temporal distribution of several natural focus diseases in Gansu province, 2014-2018 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To analyze the epidemiological and spatial-temporal distribution of Brucellosis, epidemic encephalitis B and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Gansu province during 2014-2018 so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of those diseases.@*Methods@#A database was established in Gansu province from 2014 to 2018, using the geographical information system. A spatial distribution map was drawn, with trend analysis and space-time clustering used to study the 3-dimention of the diseases, by using both ArcGIS 10.5 and SaTScan 9.6 softwares.@*Results@#Results from the trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of Brucellosis decreased gradually from north to south parts while the U type curve could reflect the distribution from the east to the west areas. Incidence of epidemic encephalitis B decreased significantly from south to north areas in the province, with incidence higher in the eastern than in the mid-west region. Difference on the incidence of HFRS was not significantly visible in the eastern and western regions, while the incidence was slightly higher in the southern than the northern parts of the province. Spatial and space-time clustering did exist among the 3 diseases in Gansu from 2014 to 2018. The areas with clusters of Brucellosis appeared in the eastern parts during 2014-2015, including 19 counties. The areas with secondary clusters of Brucellosis were seen in the Hexi district, including 4 counties, during 2017-2018. The areas with high incidence of epidemic encephalitis B were clustered in the middle and southeast areas, including 32 counties, during 2017-2018. Areas with most clusters of HFRS appeared in Min county of Dingxi city in 2018, with the areas of secondary clusters in 8 counties of the eastern areas in 2018.@*Conclusions@#The overall incidence rates of the 3 natural focus diseases were in a upward trend and showing obvious characteristics on spatial clustering. According to the distributive characteristics, effective measures should be developed accordingly.

Analysis of spatial-temporal distribution of pesticide poisoning in Quzhou, 2013-2017 / 中华劳动卫生职业病杂志

Objective@#To analysis the epidemic and spatial characteristics of pesticide poisoning in Quzhou during 2013-2017, and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of influenza in Quzhou in the future.@*Methods@#The incidence data of pesticide poisoning from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017 in Quzhou collected from China Information System For Disease Control And Prevention. The descriptive analysis conducted by using SPSS18.0 software, and the Sa T Scan 9.2 software was used to complete space-time scan. Finally, ArcMap10.2 software was used to visualize the results.@*Results@#There were 1819 cases of pesticide poisoning in Quzhou from 2007 to 2016, among which 298 cases were reported for productive poisoning, the incidence peak was from August to September, the highest number of patients in productive poisoning was in the age group of 46-60 years old and over 61 years old, with 109 patients in each group, and the number of male patients was significantly higher than that of female (χ2=63.857, P<0.01) . 1521 cases of non-productive pesticide poisoning were reported, among which the proportion of suicide poisoning (57.65%) was far higher than that of accidental poisoning (28.97%) , the number of female suicide poisoning was higher than that of male (χ2=5.510, P=0.019) , the proportion of accidental poisoning was the highest in the ≤15 years age group (89.00%, 89/100) , furthermore the number of suicide poisoning was the highest in the ≥61 years age group (314) . The incidence of pesticide poisoning could be detected by temporal-spatial scanning statistics, the time clustering is from August to September, the spatial clustering is in Jiangshan city, there are consistent with the descriptive of pesticide poisoning.@*Conclusion@#The pesticide poisoning in Quzhou is mainly caused by non-productive suicide poisoning, and the spatial clustering is in Jiangshan city. Relevant departments should carry out targeted prevention and control measures according to the different characteristics of pesticide poisoning in clustered and non-clustered areas.

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of NSCLP in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016 / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without palate (NSCLP) who born in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016, and to establish a predictive model for developing the strategies for the prevention and control of NSCLP. Methods Spatial epidemiological research method and geographical information systems (GIS) were used to conduct thematic mapping, spatial correlation analysis, high/low clustering analysis, hotspot analysis and Kirging interpolation prediction for NSCLP patients in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2016. Results From 2010 to 2016, the aggregation trend of NSCLP incidence in 89 counties in Gansu Province was different obviously, the southeast area was high and the northwest was low. Based on the data of the cumulative incidence of NSCLP from 2010 to 2016 in Gansu, the spatial distribution of NSCLP presented positive spatial correlation (Moran’I=0.274，Z=7.814，P<0.001) and the aggregation type was high-high cluster(Getis Gi=0.000 003，Z=4.381，P<0.001), with 22 hot spots. The Kirging interpolation prediction results showed that the main prevalence trend of NSCLP in Gansu extended from Longdong to Longxi and Longnan areas. Conclusions The geographical distribution of NSCLP had a positive spatial correlation and a high-high aggregation type in Gansu from 2010 to 2016. The high aggregation area is concentrated in Longdong, Longxi and Longnan of Gansu, which suggest that it is essential to focus on prevention and control in these areas.

Padrões espaço-temporais do suicídio no estado de Pernambuco, Brasil / Spatial-temporal patterns of suicide in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil / Estándares espaciales y temporales sobre el suicidio en el estado de Pernambuco, Brasil

O suicídio é considerado um problema de saúde pública mundial. Conhecer a distribuição espacial e temporal da morte autoprovocada poderá subsidiar o planejamento, implantação e avaliação de ações de prevenção. Objetivou-se descrever a ocorrência e a distribuição espaço-temporal da mortalidade por suicídio. Este é um estudo ecológico com dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade ocorridos no estado de Pernambuco, entre 1996 e 2015. O padrão espacial foi elaborado, segundo décadas, por meio de mapas temáticos dos coeficientes médios brutos e método bayesiano empírico local. Para verificação da autocorrelação espacial e conglomerados críticos empregou-se o Índice de Moran Global e Indicador Local de Associação Espacial. Para a análise da série temporal utilizou-se o Modelo Auto Regressivo Integrado de Médias Móveis com componente sazonal (p, d, q). Registrou-se 6.229 suicídios. O coeficiente de mortalidade foi de 4,5 e 4,6/100.000 hab., na primeira e segunda década, respectivamente. Constatou-se forte autocorrelação espacial do suicídio, I = 0,6876 (1996-2005) e I = 0,68704 (2006-2015). Três agrupamentos Q1, considerados críticos, foram identificados em cada período, somando-se 25 municípios no primeiro decênio e 21 no segundo. Na análise da série temporal verificou-se a presença do componente sazonal, embora não muito acentuado. A previsão dos coeficientes de suicídio, para o período de janeiro de 2016 a dezembro de 2020, foi estável com pouca variação. A análise espacial identificou áreas críticas distanciadas da Região Metropolitana do Recife. Descrever o comportamento espacial e temporal do suicídio são aspectos importantes para adotar intervenções que busquem a redução dessa violência.

Suicide is considered a global public health problem. Knowing the spatial and temporal distribution of self-inflicted death may subsidize the planning, implementation and evaluation of prevention measures. This study described the occurrence and the spatio-temporal distribution of mortality due to suicide. This ecological study with data from the Mortality Information System was performed in the state of Pernambuco between 1996 and 2015. The spatial pattern of several decades was designed with the use of thematic maps of the gross average coefficients and local empirical Bayesian method. To verify spatial autocorrelation and critical conglomerates, the Global Moran's Index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association were used. To analyze the time series, the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with seasonal component (p, d, q) was used. There were 6,229 suicides. The mortality coefficient was 4.5 and 4.6/100,000 inhabitants during the first and second decades, respectively. A strong spatial autocorrelation of suicide was found, I = 0.6876 (1996-2005) and I = 0.68704 (2006-2015). Three Q1 groups, considered critical, were identified for each period, including 25 municipalities in the first decade and 21 in the second. The analysis of the time series showed presence of the seasonal component, although not accentuated. The prediction of suicide coefficients for the period between January 2016 and December 2020 was stable with little variation. Spatial analysis identified critical areas distanced from the Metropolitan Region of Recife. Describing the spatial and temporal behavior of suicide is important for adopting interventions that seek to reduce this violence.

Se considera el suicidio un problema de salud pública global. La identificación de la distribución espacial y temporal de la muerte autoprovocada puede auxiliar en la planificación, la implantación y la evaluación de acciones para prevenirla. Se buscó describir la ocurrencia y la distribución espacial y temporal de la mortalidad por suicidio. Es un estudio ecológico realizado con datos del Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad del estado de Pernambuco, en el período entre 1996 y 2015. Se elaboró el estándar espacial según décadas, por medio de mapas temáticos de los coeficientes medios brutos y el método bayesiano empírico local. En la verificación de la autocorrelación espacial y aglomerados críticos se empleó el Índice de Moran Global y el Indicador Local de Asociación Espacial. En el análisis de la serie temporal se utilizó el Modelo Autorregresivo Integrado de Medias Móviles con componente estacional (p,d,q). Se registraron 6.229 suicidios. El coeficiente de mortalidad fue de 4,5 y 4,6/100.000 hab., en la primera y segunda década, respectivamente. Se observó una fuerte autocorrelación espacial del suicidio, I = 0,6876 (1996-2005) e I = 0,68704 (2006-2015). Se identificaron tres agrupamientos Q1 considerados críticos en cada período, lo que totalizó 25 municipios en el primer decenio; y 21, en el segundo. En el análisis de la serie temporal se verificó la presencia del componente estacional, aunque no muy acentuado. Se estiman que los coeficientes de suicidio, en el período de enero de 2016 a diciembre de 2020, estaban estables, presentando poca variación. El análisis espacial identificó áreas críticas lejanas a la región metropolitana de Recife. Es importante describir el comportamiento espacial y temporal del suicidio para que se adopten intervenciones con el fin de reducir esa violencia.

Spatial-temporal analysis on the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome among permanent residence and migrants in Shanghai, 2005-2015 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS) in permanent residents and migrants in Shanghai during 2005 to 2015 and provide suggestions for the HIV/AIDS prevention.@*Methods@#The data of HIV/AIDS was collected from the National HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System based on report date. The population data was collected from the statistical yearbook of Shanghai. Spatial analysis was conducted using the hotspots model in ArcGIS. SaTScan software was employed to determine the distribution of HIV clusters in space, time or both.@*Results@#During 2005 to 2015, a total of 13 498 cases of HIV/AIDS were reported in Shanghai. The prevalence of HIV increased from 0.025/105 (450 cases) to 0.093/105 (2 236 cases). The prevalence of AIDS increased from 0.002/105 (32 cases) to 0.028/105 (683 cases). Hotspot analysis showed that the hot spot of incidence of migrants had moved from Hongkou (2005) (Z=2.96, P=0.003) to Changning (2006-2015) (all Z>1.96, P<0.05); whereas the hot spot of incidence of permanent residents had moving from Jinshan (2005-2007) (all Z>2.58, P<0.01) to downtown area (2006-2015) (all Z>1.96, P<0.05). The spatial high clusters of HIV and AIDS were same, including Huangpu, Xuhui, Changning, Jingan, Putuo, Hongkou and Yangpu; The temporal high clusters of HIV cases among permanent residents were 2011 to 2015, and the spatial clusters were Huangpu, Xuhui, Changning, Jingan. The temporal high clusters of HIV cases among migrants were 2014 to 2015, and the spatial clusters was Xuhui, Changning, Jingan.@*Conclusion@#The total HIV/AIDS incidence in Shanghai was clustered in downtown area. The cluster of the incidence of the permanent residents had moving towards that of migrants, indicating the cluster area deserves a close surveillance.

Spatial and temporal scanning analysis of infectious disease of C category in changde from 2010 to 2015 / 中国医师杂志

Objective To explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of C infectious diseases in Changde City from 2010 to 2015,grasp the situation of high priority areas so as to provide theoretical basis for prevention and control.Methods Spatio-temporal scanning was performed by using SaTScan software,and the spatial and temporal clustering regions of C infectious diseases were presented by ArcGIS software.Results The prevalence of C infectious diseases in Changde City was higher than that in other times in 2010 (RR =4.16,P =0.000).(LLY =497.019,RR =1.48,P ＜ 0.001).There was a most likely clustering area in the Wuling area of Changde,and the incidence of C infectious diseases in this area was higher than that in other areas,and the difference was statistically significant.Simple spatial scanning analysis and space-time scan analysis were also found in South Central Deshan Development Zone (LLR =277.131,RR =1.77,P ＜0.001) and Northern Linli county (LLR =136.683,RR =1.27,P ＜ 0.001) are two secondary gathering area,where the actual number of cases were much more than the theoretical number of cases,the difference was statistically significant.In addition,there are other regions of the existence of sub-aggregation state.Conclusions Spatio-temporal scanning analysis method can be applied to the high incidence of infectious diseases in Changde City.Combined with geographic information system that we can show the incidence of disease and disease in a more intuitive and comprehensive way,which can provide a scientific reference for the future prevention and control of the disease.

Space-time analysis of over-limit of sodium nitrite in cooked meat products from Hunan Province in 2010-2014 / 中南大学学报(医学版)

Objective:To determine over-limit status of sodium nitrite in cooked meat products in Hunan Province,and to provide scientific evidence for making health supervision.Methods:In accordance with the national standards for sampling and testing,data were analyzed by classical and spatial statistic methods.Results:The total over-limit rate of sodium nitrite was 5.5％ in 731 samples.The relative higher sodium nitrite over-limit rates were Xiangxi Tujia and Miao autonomous prefecture and Zhangjiajie.October and February were the main months in nitrite over-limit.Five regions with over-limit of sodium nitrite in cooked meat products were detected in Hunan.Conclusion:With obvious space-time clustering,over-limit of sodium nitrite in cooked meat products is a common problem particularly in northwest Hunan and Zhuzhou City.Supervision in October should be further strengthened in above-mentioned areas to guarantee the consumers health.

Visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: spatial and space-time analysis / Leishmaniose visceral no estado de São Paulo, Brasil: análise espacial e espaço-temporal

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To perform both space and space-time evaluations of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. METHODS The population considered in the study comprised autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis and deaths resulting from it in Sao Paulo, between 1999 and 2013. The analysis considered the western region of the state as its studied area. Thematic maps were created to show visceral leishmaniasis dissemination in humans in the municipality. Spatial analysis tools Kernel and Kernel ratio were used to respectively obtain the distribution of cases and deaths and the distribution of incidence and mortality. Scan statistics were used in order to identify spatial and space-time clusters of cases and deaths. RESULTS The visceral leishmaniasis cases in humans, during the studied period, were observed to occur in the western portion of Sao Paulo, and their territorial extension mainly followed the eastbound course of the Marechal Rondon highway. The incidences were characterized as two sequences of concentric ellipses of decreasing intensities. The first and more intense one was found to have its epicenter in the municipality of Castilho (where the Marechal Rondon highway crosses the border of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul) and the second one in Bauru. Mortality was found to have a similar behavior to incidence. The spatial and space-time clusters of cases were observed to coincide with the two areas of highest incidence. Both the space-time clusters identified, even without coinciding in time, were started three years after the human cases were detected and had the same duration, that is, six years. CONCLUSIONS The expansion of visceral leishmaniasis in Sao Paulo has been taking place in an eastbound direction, focusing on the role of highways, especially Marechal Rondon, in this process. The space-time analysis detected the disease occurred in cycles, in different spaces and time periods. These meetings, if considered, may contribute to the adoption of actions that aim to prevent the disease from spreading throughout the whole territory of São Paulo or to at least reducing its expansion speed.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Avaliar, no espaço e espaço-tempo, a ocorrência da leishmaniose visceral em humanos no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. MÉTODOS Considerou-se como população de estudo os casos autóctones e óbitos por leishmaniose visceral em humanos ocorridos em São Paulo entre 1999 e 2013 e, como área de estudo, a região oeste do estado. Construíram-se mapas temáticos que mostraram a disseminação da leishmaniose visceral em humanos nos municípios. Ferramentas de análise espacial Kernel e razão Kernel foram utilizadas para obter, respectivamente, a distribuição dos casos e óbitos e a distribuição da incidência e mortalidade. Utilizaram-se estatísticas de varredura para identificar aglomerados espaciais e espaço-temporais de casos e óbitos. RESULTADOS Os casos de leishmaniose visceral em humanos, no período de estudo, ocorreram na parte ocidental de São Paulo e sua expansão territorial seguiu principalmente o curso da rodovia Marechal Rondon, no sentido oeste-leste. As incidências foram caracterizadas como duas sequências de elipses concêntricas com intensidade decrescente. A primeira, com maior intensidade, teve epicentro no município de Castilho (cruzamento da rodovia Marechal Rondon com a divisa com o estado de Mato Grosso do Sul) e a segunda, em Bauru. A mortalidade apresentou comportamento similar ao da incidência. Os aglomerados espaciais e espaço-temporais de casos coincidiram com as duas áreas de maiores incidências. Ambos os aglomerados espaço-temporais identificados, mesmo sem coincidirem temporalmente, tiveram início após três anos da detecção dos casos humanos e tiveram a mesma duração, seis anos. CONCLUSÕES A expansão da leishmaniose visceral em São Paulo vem ocorrendo no sentido oeste-leste, com destaque ao papel das rodovias, especialmente a Marechal Rondon, neste processo. A análise espaço-temporal detectou, em diferentes espaços e períodos de tempo, ciclicidade na ocorrência da doença. Esses encontros, se considerados, podem colaborar para a adoção de ações que visem a evitar que a doença se espalhe por todo o território paulista ou, no mínimo, diminuir sua velocidade de expansão.

Temporal and spatial clustering characteristics and changes of severe hand, foot, and mouth disease in mainland of China, from 2008 to 2013 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective The purpose of this study was to analyze the distribution,temporal and spatial clustering characteristics and changes of severe hand,foot,and mouth disease (HFMD) in order to provide evidence-based decision making strategy for control and prevention of severe HFMD cases.Methods Severe HFMD cares were extracted from the National Diseases Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) between 2008 and 2013.Definition and clinical diagnostic criteria of severe HFMD cases were set up by China CDC in the Hand,Foot,and Mouth Disease Control and Prevention Guideline,version 2010.Spatial scan unit was under the district/county of 2 900 in mainland China with temporal scan unit as month and time span as from May 2008 to August 2013.Kulldorff scan statistics was applied and analyses were conducted by SaTScanTM 9.1.Mapping and visualizing the results were carried out with ArcGIS 10.0.Results Data related to the monitoring program on severe HFMD from 2008 to 2013 demonstrated that above 96％ of the severe HFMD cases occurred under 5 years old,mostly males,with the ratio of males to females as 1.73-1.80 and over 84％ of the children were ‘scattered'.Results from SaTScan illustrated that the temporal and spatial clustering existed among severe HFMD cases.The temporal dimension of severe HFMD was from May to July each year.Spatial dimension was located in south-east coastal area and middle-east area.With respect to the changes of temporal and spatial clustering phenomena,Class 1 clustering area was located in south-east coastal region in 2008 and in middle-east region in 2009 and was shifting to the west from middle-east region in 2010.It moved to the north-east from middle-east region in 2011 and to the north-west and south-west from middle-east region in 2012.Class 1 clustering area covered districts/countries from 18 provinces in 2012.The same pattem of Class 1 clustering area was observed as in the previous year-2013,but with less districts/countries from the 13 provinces.Conclusion Temporal and spatial clustering areas of severe HFMD were presented in this report,and the yearly changing pattern of the clustering areas was noted.Findings from this study provided evidence-based data to the decision-making authorities so as to prevent deaths from severe HFMD cases under reasonable prevention and control strategies.

Epidemiological characteristics of and temporal-spatial clustering of gonorrhea in Zhejiang province during 2004-2012 / 中华皮肤科杂志

Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of gonorrhea,and to analyze its temporal-spatial clustering in Zhejiang province.Methods Data on the incidence and demographic characteristics of gonorrhea in Zhejiang province from January 2004 to December 2012 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.The population,time and space distributions of gonorrhea were described.Epidemic curve and incidence maps were drawn.A space-time permutation scan statistic was used to detect space-time clusters,and spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to calculate the Moran's I value and draw Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster maps.Results In Zhejiang province,a total of 199 956 cases of gonorrhea were reported with a decreasing trend in incidence rate from 2004 to 2012.The male to female ratio was 3.51:1 (155 634/44 331).People aged between 25 and 60 years accounted for 75.21％ of these patients,whereas the constituent ratio of people aged 0-1 years and ＞ 60 years increased with time.The incidence rate of gonorrhea was significantly higher in middle and north parts than in the south part of Zhejiang province,and higher in summer than in winter and spring with the peak incidence observed in August.Thirteen temporal-spatial clusters were detected,with the large clusters in Hangzhou,Huzhou,Ningbo,Shaoxing and their neighbor counties/cities/ districts,as well as some counties/cities/districts in Jinhua.All of the above clusters lasted 4.5 years.LISA maps showed an increasing trend in high-high aggregation counties/cities/districts which spread from the north to south part of Zhejiang province.Conclusion There is a temporal-spatial aggregation of gonorrhea in Zhejiang province with young and middle-aged men as the main affected population.